Post Surge

A few days ago, I was listening to the radio when I heard something that made me think twice. Iraqis who fled their homes over the past 4 years are slowly but surely returning.

What has happened to Iraq over the past 6 months? When I last blogged about it, it felt like the end of days, a hell on earth, a state teetering on the edge of the chasm of outright war and genocide.

Since then, we've had September's Petraeus report, which suggested a slight improvement, speed bumps rather than U-turns on the road Iraq was heading down. An agreement with former tribal insurgents to work together in eliminating Al-Qaeda seemed too dubious to put faith in, and political progress was nil.

In fact, the Blackwater killings that month and the death of Turkish soldiers at the hands of Kurdish rebels seemed to be the beginning of the final act.

What has changed?

Could it be that the surge is actually working? If so, then that was a good call - albeit quite late in the game. The US troop presence in Iraq seems to have taken a new meaning, gaining a sense of purpose and determination that wasn't there at the start. I have to admit that I thought it would have be analagous to closing the stable door after the horse left, but it just goes to show that you should listen to veterans like John McCain, or for that matter, The Economist.

The most probable reason for the change in fortunes is the cooperation between former Sunni insurgents and the army. Foreign militias are being rooted out of previously no-go areas, which are being secured by the local tribesman.

These together seem to be working so well that Iraqis are returning en masse. In fact, too many are returning, as in this article: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2007/12/04/MNNHTNET9.DTL&type=politics

However, despite these new successes, you can't help but stay wary. As almost everyone has noted, 2007 is still the year with the highest number of troop casualties to date. And suicide bombings and fighting still occurs regularly across Iraq.

Things look good so far, but we can only hope that they continue this way till this whole mess is sorted.